"At its simplest, Bayes's theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes's...

Bayesian Inference for Partially Identified Models: Exploring the Limits of Limited Data shows how the Bayesian approach to inference is applicable to partially identified models (PIMs) and examines the performance of Bayesian procedures in partially identified contexts. Drawing on his many years of research in this area, the author presents a thorough overview of the statistical theory, properties, and applications of PIMs. The book first describes...

"This book provides analysis of stochastic processes from a Bayesian perspective with coverage of the main classes of stochastic processing, including modeling, computational, inference, prediction, decision-making and important applied models based on stochastic processes. In offers an introduction of MCMC and other statistical computing machinery that have pushed forward advances in Bayesian methodology. Addressing the growing interest for Bayesian...

"--Presents extensive examples throughout the book to complement the theory presented. Includes significant new material on recent techniques such as variational methods, importance sampling, approximate computation and reversible jump MCMC"--

"Preface This book is intended to have three roles and to serve three associated audiences: an introductory text on Bayesian inference starting from first principles, a graduate text on effective current approaches to Bayesian modeling and computation in statistics and related fields, and a handbook of Bayesian methods in applied statistics for general users of and researchers in applied statistics. Although introductory in its early sections, the...

There is an explosion of interest in Bayesian statistics, primarily because recently created computational methods have finally made Bayesian analysis obtainable to a wide audience. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, A Tutorial Introduction with R and BUGS provides an accessible approach to Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. The book begins with the basics, including essential concepts of probability and random...

"This book is intended to provide a bottom-up and fundamental understanding of the use of probabilistic methods and reliability analysis techniques in engineering applications. It covers from the fundamentals of the theory to real life applications in the field"--

Presents an introduction to Bayesian statistics, presents an emphasis on Bayesian methods (prior and posterior), Bayes estimation, prediction, MCMC,Bayesian regression, and Bayesian analysis of statistical modelsof dependence, and features a focus on copulas for risk management Introduction to Bayesian Estimation and Copula Models of Dependence emphasizes the applications of Bayesian analysis to copula modeling and equips readers with the tools...

Ciaran Walsh is Senior Specialist Finance at the Irish Management Institute, Dublin. He is trained both as an economist and an accountant and had 15 years industry experience before joining the academic world. His work with senior managers over many years has enabled him to develop his own unique approach to training corporate finance. As a consequence, he has lectured in most European countries, and the Middle East. His main research interest is...

A Single Cohesive Framework of Tools and Procedures for Psychometrics and Assessment Bayesian Psychometric Modeling presents a unified Bayesian approach across traditionally separate families of psychometric models. It shows that Bayesian techniques, as alternatives to conventional approaches, offer distinct and profound advantages in achieving many goals of psychometrics. Adopting a Bayesian approach can aid in unifying seemingly disparate-and sometimes...